Departmental Seminar on 29.04.2026

Carbon dioxide makes up about 76% of total global greenhouse gases   that makes power sector decarbonization significant to any plausible   net-zero strategy. The transition is equally important for national   targets in Türkiye, where the power and heat sectors contribute 35.5%   to energy-related emissions of 392.3 Mt in 2023. With climbing   electricity demand and reliance on imported fossil fuel particularly   coal, which is now over 42% of energy-related emissions, the challenge   remains.  While Türkiye is targeting net-zero in 2053, there is a  need  for compromise on the "energy trilemma" during the transition:  deep  decarbonization should be achieved without affecting system   reliability and cost competitiveness. Available literature models in general terms are very aggregated;   while they can be useful, they generally miss the hourly dynamics and   operational constraints that such a high penetration of VRE must have   within the system. This paper attempts to close that gap through   implicit deterministic hourly energy system modeling with the   EnergyPLAN simulation tool. A high-resolution digital twin of the   Turkish electricity system has been developed and calibrated to a 2025   baseline while ensuring validation against observed national indicators. This transition analysis is conducted considering four different   transition pathways: the national energy plan, electrification, energy   autonomy, and nuclear integration, with milestone years of 2035,  2045, and 2053. Each pathway is analyzed in terms of CO2 reduction,  total  system costs, import dependency, and renewable curtailment. The   results allow a better view of the infrastructure requirements and   flexibility challenges of the respective pathways. This research   provides a highly necessary indication of what trade-offs must be made   and, therefore, bridges the long-term climate target with the   technical and economic reality of transforming Turkey's power system.